BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+392%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
173Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.19–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.19–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.280.170.38
20270.280.170.39
20280.280.180.39
20290.290.180.39
20300.290.190.40

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Barred Owl in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS52024
McfallMISSOURI52025
EmdenMISSOURI52024
KeetonvilleOKLAHOMA52022
Camp PointILLINOIS42016
Trading PostKANSAS42025
CameronILLINOIS32024
WashtaIOWA31978
HumboldtKANSAS32022
SenecaKANSAS32021
Sni MillsMISSOURI31990
FrankfordMISSOURI32024
LurayMISSOURI32025
MoselleMISSOURI32025
SheffieldILLINOIS22024
MonticelloILLINOIS22000
AthensvilleILLINOIS22023
BelleviewILLINOIS22025
Mt VernonILLINOIS22025
RobinsonILLINOIS22023
SenecaILLINOIS22019
PaysonILLINOIS22004
Grape CreekILLINOIS22023
MarshallILLINOIS22025
KellILLINOIS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.