BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Barred Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+306%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 306% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.32–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.32–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.281.7
20261.000.291.7
20271.00.301.7
20281.00.311.7
20291.00.321.7

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Barred Owl in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SaffellARKANSAS62019
RamahLOUISIANA52024
BerwickLOUISIANA52011
FreetownLOUISIANA42019
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA42024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI42021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI42023
PawpawTENNESSEE42012
KraemerLOUISIANA32024
HughesARKANSAS22023
West TylerARKANSAS21982
South BendARKANSAS22023
EnglandARKANSAS22013
GillettARKANSAS22016
KelsoARKANSAS22014
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA21986
RayvilleLOUISIANA21994
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22023
River RoadLOUISIANA22022
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA22024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22023
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI22023
DeventerMISSOURI21986
KennettMISSOURI22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.