BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Barred Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+205%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.04–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.11 (95% range 0.04–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.030.18
20260.110.030.18
20270.110.040.18
20280.110.040.18
20290.110.040.18

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Barred Owl in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HomerMICHIGAN32014
LoraineWISCONSIN32021
AdrianMICHIGAN21971
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN22019
Money CreekMINNESOTA22013
EsdaileWISCONSIN22023
CochraneWISCONSIN21986
HatfieldWISCONSIN21998
MatherWISCONSIN22010
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN22021
PrincetonWISCONSIN22024
EdenWISCONSIN22001
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN22023
GuilfordILLINOIS12023
Cherry ValILLINOIS12002
Cherry Val 2ILLINOIS12018
Lake GalenaILLINOIS12021
MiddleburyINDIANA12023
Columbia CtyINDIANA11988
PackertownINDIANA11991
EllisINDIANA12001
Packertown 2INDIANA12024
LagrangeINDIANA12012
Indiana DuneINDIANA12021
FestinaIOWA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.