BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+245%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
119Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 245% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Barred Owl In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.06–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.06–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.050.36
20270.210.050.36
20280.210.050.37
20290.210.050.37
20300.210.060.37

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Barred Owl in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
InletNEW-YORK52016
S HoriconNEW-YORK42016
WashburnMAINE31995
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE32021
DegrasseNEW-YORK32025
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK31975
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK32014
New HartfordCONNECTICUT22018
HarmonyMAINE21988
AuroraMAINE22004
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE22024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE22025
MckeeverNEW-YORK21993
Old ForgeNEW-YORK22006
WanakenaNEW-YORK22024
GabrielsNEW-YORK22021
Underwood 2NEW-YORK22009
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK22004
S ReadingVERMONT22024
GaysvilleVERMONT22001
Post MillsVERMONT21994
W RutlandVERMONT22024
East CalaisVERMONT22024
HardwickVERMONT22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.