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Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+440%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
265Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 440% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Barred Owl In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.15–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.15–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.140.22
20260.180.140.22
20270.180.140.22
20280.190.150.23
20290.190.150.23

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA52024
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA42013
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA42014
FinzelMARYLAND32024
SwainNEW-YORK32003
Wayne N.F.OHIO32024
Smokey JctTENNESSEE32021
Cades CoveTENNESSEE32018
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA32006
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA32021
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA32021
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA22024
OakmanGEORGIA22012
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY22018
MonticelloKENTUCKY22002
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY21994
KehoeKENTUCKY21974
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY22019
SmithsburgMARYLAND22013
MiddletownNEW-YORK22010
MeridaleNEW-YORK22023
Phillips CrNEW-YORK22014
Oxford 2NEW-YORK22024
Table RockNORTH-CAROLINA22021
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.