BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Barred Owl In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsBirds of prey

Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 416% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+416%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
265Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Barred Owl In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.15–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.15–0.23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.140.22
20270.180.140.22
20280.180.140.22
20290.180.140.23
20300.190.150.23

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Barred Owl in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA52024
Tussey Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA42025
Green BankWEST-VIRGINIA42013
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA42014
Pleasant HillGEORGIA32025
FinzelMARYLAND32024
SwainNEW-YORK32003
Wayne N.F.OHIO32024
Smokey JctTENNESSEE32021
Cades CoveTENNESSEE32018
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA32006
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA32021
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA32021
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA22024
TalladegaALABAMA22025
OakmanGEORGIA22012
Cumberlnd GpKENTUCKY22018
MonticelloKENTUCKY22002
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY21994
KehoeKENTUCKY21974
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY22019
SmithsburgMARYLAND22013
MiddletownNEW-YORK22010
MeridaleNEW-YORK22023
Phillips CrNEW-YORK22014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.