BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Barred Owl In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Barred Owl in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+147%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Barred Owl has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Barred Owl In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Barred Owl in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.01–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.18
20260.090.000.18
20270.090.000.18
20280.090.010.18
20290.100.010.18

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Barred Owl in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HiramOHIO42015
Herner CrnsOHIO32023
CatskillsNEW-YORK22015
Canadice LNEW-YORK22005
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK22016
PittsfieldOHIO22021
New SomersetOHIO21977
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA22003
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12017
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12007
Ballston LkNEW-YORK11970
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK12016
BranchportNEW-YORK12024
RandolphNEW-YORK12018
NashvilleNEW-YORK11976
ByronNEW-YORK11968
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11976
PulaskiNEW-YORK12022
N WilmurtNEW-YORK11995
SalemNEW-YORK12017
ArgyleNEW-YORK12018
North EastonNEW-YORK12014
ParishvilleNEW-YORK12024
HopkintonNEW-YORK12014
WillsboroNEW-YORK12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.