Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Analysis

Icteridae Forest birdsIcterus spurius

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968

2,351Routes

59Years Surveyed

About the Orchard Oriole

The Orchard Oriole (Icterus spurius) is a North American member of the Blackbirds & Orioles (Icteridae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size: 6.5–17 in long (16–43 cm) — a small to medium songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat: Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet: Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range: Recorded on 2,351 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 41 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family: Icteridae · Forest birds

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends

long arc declinecomputed index

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.53–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030

1.1Projected 2030 index

0.53–1.795% range

±18.2%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2026	1.2	0.60	1.8
2027	1.2	0.58	1.8
2028	1.2	0.56	1.8
2029	1.2	0.55	1.8
2030	1.1	0.53	1.7

Where the Orchard Oriole Is Detected

BBS routes recording Orchard Oriole, sized by most recent count.

Orchard Oriole Population Trend by State

Orchard Oriole population trend by state.

Alabama	-58%	1968	108
Arkansas	-79%	1969	58
Colorado	-4%	1974	42
Connecticut	+28%	1969	15
Delaware	+265%	1968	17
Florida	-81%	1968	57
Georgia	-41%	1968	108
Illinois	+134%	1968	98
Indiana	+66%	1968	61
Iowa	+155%	1969	38
Kansas	-47%	1969	67
Kentucky	-61%	1968	64
Louisiana	-42%	1969	96
Maine	insufficient data	n/a	3
Maryland	+99%	1968	76
Massachusetts	+78%	1979	18
Michigan	+324%	1973	33
Minnesota	+823%	1974	46
Mississippi	-46%	1968	73
Missouri	-23%	1969	93
Montana	+834%	1984	33
Nebraska	+410%	1969	74
New Hampshire	+34%	2003	3
New Jersey	-21%	1968	37
New Mexico	insufficient data	n/a	6
New York	+642%	1971	50
North Carolina	-31%	1968	102
North Dakota	+828%	1969	51
Ohio	+367%	1968	86
Oklahoma	-82%	1969	64
Pennsylvania	+246%	1968	103
Rhode Island	insufficient data	n/a	4
South Carolina	-62%	1968	51
South Dakota	+23%	1969	52
Tennessee	-49%	1968	51
Texas	-79%	1969	200
Vermont	insufficient data	n/a	2
Virginia	+71%	1968	75
West Virginia	+34%	1968	59
Wisconsin	23×	1968	55
Wyoming	+21%	1975	22

Orchard Oriole Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Orchard Oriole population trend by Bird Conservation Region.

Prairie Potholes	+182%	1969	109
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain	+880%	1971	48
Badlands and Prairies	+38%	1969	86
Shortgrass Prairie	+29%	1969	89
Central Mixed Grass Prairie	-0%	1969	121
Edwards Plateau	-88%	1969	20
Oaks and Prairies	-90%	1969	70
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie	+46%	1968	265
Prairie Hardwood Transition	16×	1968	120
Central Hardwoods	-70%	1968	164
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas	-68%	1969	108
Mississippi Alluvial Valley	-67%	1968	69
Southeastern Coastal Plain	-48%	1968	338
Appalachian Mountains	-43%	1968	325
Piedmont	+14%	1968	164
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast	+44%	1968	138
Peninsular Florida	-73%	1968	16
Chihuahuan Desert	-1%	1969	23
Tamaulipan Brushlands	-68%	1969	25
Gulf Coastal Prairie	-44%	1969	36

Orchard Oriole Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 55% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.