BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Iowa

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Iowa has surged: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+189%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Iowa: up 189% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Iowa is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.60–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Iowa is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.60–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.521.8
20261.20.541.8
20271.20.561.8
20281.20.581.8
20291.20.601.8

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washta1420141967
Wales820181968
College Spgs620041967
Brooklyn620221986
Sioux City520241968
Rock Valley520191971
West Liberty420241969
Panther420241967
Bedford320181968
Red Rock320241991
Pierson320191970
College Spgs 2320232005
Exline220241979
Williamsburg220081980
Neola220121968
Scranton220231993
Davis Corner220222022
Mccallsburg220241996
Mt Hamill120241967
Melrose120241977
Bryant120221987
Cedar Valley119971982
Desmoines119791969
Washington120102009
Maquoketa120221967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.