BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Iowa

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Iowa has surged: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+155%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Iowa: up 155% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Iowa is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.62–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Iowa is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.62–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.541.8
20271.20.561.8
20281.20.581.8
20291.20.601.8
20301.20.621.8

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
College Spgs620041967
Brooklyn620221986
Sioux City520241968
Rock Valley520191971
Festina420251968
Melrose320251977
Bedford320251968
Bryant320251987
Pierson320191970
College Spgs 2320232005
Mccallsburg320251996
Exline220241979
West Liberty220251969
Williamsburg220081980
Red Rock220251991
Panther220251967
Wales220251968
Hudson220251979
Scranton220251993
Davis Corner220222022
Mt Hamill120251967
Cedar Valley119971982
Desmoines119791969
Washington120102009
Neola120251968

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.