BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Minnesota has surged: up 662% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+662%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Minnesota: up 662% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Minnesota is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.21–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Minnesota is projected to rise about 52% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.21–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.190.70
20260.450.190.70
20270.460.200.71
20280.460.210.72
20290.470.210.72

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Creek520231977
Glyndon520241988
Big Stone520121995
Lockhart420241993
Huntley320232006
Courtland320091984
Caledonia319941993
Money Creek220231969
Maynard220152003
Chokio220231970
Franklin220192004
Tracy220242004
Glenwood220191993
Chokio North220241993
Chatfield119951985
Hartland120132009
Chandler120231974
Millville120151977
Lakeville120161989
Minnetonka120222013
Arlington119951995
Redwood Fall120061980
Dawson120061980
Princeton120232023
Osseo120162013

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.