BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Minnesota has surged: up 823% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+823%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.48 (95% range 0.23–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.48 (95% range 0.23–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.200.70
20270.460.210.71
20280.470.210.72
20290.470.220.72
20300.480.230.73

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lockhart720251993
Ash Creek520231977
Glyndon520241988
Big Stone520121995
Appleton320251981
Beltrami320251975
Caledonia319941993
Money Creek220231969
Huntley220252006
Maynard220152003
Franklin220252004
Tracy220252004
Glenwood220191993
Chatfield119951985
Hartland120132009
Chandler120231974
Millville120251977
Lakeville120161989
Minnetonka120222013
Arlington120251995
Courtland120251984
Redwood Fall120061980
Dawson120061980
Princeton120232023
Osseo120162013

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.