BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 0.00–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.4 (95% range 0.00–9.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.70.089.3
20264.60.029.2
20274.50.009.1
20284.50.009.1
20294.40.009.0

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinewood2320191998
Rome1720241967
Salem Xrd1420191982
New Ellenton1420232010
Holly Hill1320241972
Green Sea1320242010
Boykin Ml Pd1219681966
New Holland1120241967
Sandhills1120241994
Mount Pisgah1120211998
Pendleton1019761966
Nixonville919951987
Bennettsville920171998
Johns Isle819791966
Dillon720211970
Ward720212017
Bishopville620241970
Plum Branch620241977
Ridgeway620212010
Walterboro520171970
Carvers Bay520121998
Little Mtn419881966
Boiling Spgs419791967
Jamestown320051967
Hardeeville320241970

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.