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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in South Carolina has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in South Carolina: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.60.059.2
20274.50.009.1
20284.50.009.0
20294.40.009.0
20304.30.008.9

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pinewood2320191998
Rome1920251967
Bishopville1520251970
Salem Xrd1420191982
Boykin Ml Pd1219681966
Green Sea1220252010
Holly Hill1120251972
Coward1120251966
Pendleton1019761966
New Ellenton1020252010
New Holland920251967
Nixonville919951987
Bennettsville920171998
Johns Isle819791966
Sandhills820251994
Dillon720211970
Ward720252017
Carvers Bay520121998
Little Mtn419881966
Boiling Spgs419791967
Jamestown320051967
Owings320041995
Barton Creek320211969
Mount Pisgah320251998
Nixville320251998

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.