BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Georgia

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Georgia has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Georgia. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Georgia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Georgia is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.64.2
20262.91.64.2
20272.81.54.1
20282.81.54.1
20292.81.54.1

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxeys2520241966
Lincolnton 21520242018
Guyton1119931966
White Hill1020242005
Wrightsville920241966
Hollonville920031973
Dover920241976
Union920232011
Baxley820191966
Wadley820241978
Rock Branch820242005
Boston720241975
Vidalia720241995
Metasville720001997
Colonels Island720232005
Courthouse620241966
Deepstep620231975
Sharon 2620242023
Fowlstown520161967
Fitzgerald520241966
Lincolnton520171966
Bowdon520241973
Workmore520191978
Douglas519841978
Ball Ground520192019

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.