BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in North Dakota has surged: up 828% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+828%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in North Dakota: up 828% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 5.0–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 6.6 (95% range 5.0–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.24.67.8
20276.34.77.8
20286.44.87.9
20296.54.98.0
20306.65.08.1

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake George2920231970
Cooperstown1820251972
Danzig 21720252019
Buchanan1420251967
Denbigh1420251968
Horsehead Lk1320251980
Dickinson1120251989
Gorham1020251971
Solen1020252005
Bowman920251967
Sheyenne Lk820251980
Forman720251969
Edgeley720251980
Loraine720191983
Braddock720231988
Carson720251988
Cedar Creek620221968
Nash520161980
Dunn Center520251968
Zap520241967
Wild Rose520251982
Sydney419831971
Emerado420251973
Stanley420251971
Bentley420011988

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.