BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Virginia has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has risen sharply in Virginia: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.5–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.4 (95% range 1.5–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.53.3
20272.41.53.3
20282.41.53.3
20292.41.53.3
20302.41.53.3

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brodnax1120251973
Cape Charles1120181992
Brandy Station920252018
Taylorstown820071967
Amherst720251967
Clinchport719781974
Marion719771976
Chincoteag W720241992
Edinburg520251987
Natural Brid520251975
Shipman520251969
Concord520241967
Hall520251967
Finchley520171994
Jerome420251972
Putnam420251969
Big Island420251968
Branchville420241966
Gladys420251994
Blacksburg420251988
Carters Brdg 2420252015
Churchville320251973
Covington320111987
Fincastle320251966
Church Road320251968

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.