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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in North Carolina has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in North Carolina is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 1.3–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+114%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in North Carolina is projected to rise about 114% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 1.3–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte2719911966
Arapahoe1719951966
Belgrade1520192002
Fairmont1219811968
Beargrass1119811966
Hamlet1120241995
Maple Hill1020231995
Speed920241967
Jamesville920241983
Jackson920171995
Merrimon820231968
Montague820241990
Lloyd Xroads820211990
Bullock820241997
California720131972
Kinston620241966
Arcola620241971
Grandy619751971
Reelsboro620191997
Rhems619931990
Genoa620241990
Rheasville620172005
Rose520241968
Madison519811967
Cypress Cr520221990

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.