BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Maryland has surged: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+114%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Maryland: up 114% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Maryland is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.2–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Maryland is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.3 (95% range 3.2–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.07.3
20265.23.17.4
20275.33.17.4
20285.33.17.4
20295.33.27.5

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cokesbury1820241966
Honga1520241966
Ijamsville1520241986
Madison1120241967
Walnut1120241999
Tall Timbers920141966
Fruitland919981966
Cheltenham820041966
Forest Grove820232011
Fair Hill819961992
Earlton720242014
Smithsburg620141970
Olney620241975
Jones619941966
Vienna620241966
Emmitsburg520241966
La Plata520091967
Matthews520241966
Snow Hill519761966
Indiantown520141977
Madonna520222009
Nottingham520242005
Wolfsville420231974
Silver Spg419891966
Warfieldsbrg420181966

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.