BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 0.41–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.3 (95% range 0.41–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.766.5
20263.60.686.5
20273.50.596.4
20283.40.506.3
20293.30.416.2

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3119971996
Canton1620181968
Merrimac1420241967
Bardwell1320031967
Bays Fork1320191999
Iron Bridge1119981966
Johnsonville1120211966
Million1019861966
Dixie1020181968
Porter1020241966
Paintsville1019951979
Million 21020242008
Boxville919831972
Joy920231966
Kehoe 2820242005
Campton820211980
Daniel Boone719881966
Buena Vista720171966
Plum720241966
Sunnybrook520221968
Glencoe520181966
Sewell Shop520231966
Hodgenville 2520232008
Keysburg420241968
Goshen419991966

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.