BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Ohio has surged: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+377%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Ohio: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Ohio is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.12.1
20261.61.12.1
20271.61.12.1
20281.61.22.1
20291.71.22.2

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Omega1120241970
Dresden820241974
Rome820241968
Stonecreek820241996
Ash Ridge720211992
Bismark619951971
Troy619951995
Kenton620131981
Keene620231992
Cumberland520171966
Baxter Ridge420231998
Birmingham420241988
Dunlap319881967
Xenia319691968
New Marshfld320241969
Coal Run319921967
Botkins220191992
Cosmos219991966
Lattasburg220241992
Fulton220241971
Smithfield220241972
Wilmington219961967
Port William220221997
Lockport120221988
Napoleon120241971

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.