BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Florida has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Florida: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Florida is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±215.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Florida is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±215.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.003.0
20261.20.002.9
20271.10.002.9
20281.10.002.9
20291.10.002.9

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale6020111987
New Hope1920112009
Seminole Hls920001967
Telogia919851968
Santa Rosa720021987
Miller Xrds720191987
Broad Branch620241968
Nixon519851985
Blountstown420241966
Laurel Hill420242010
Blackwater420221988
St Augustine319931967
St Vincent I320241995
Hixtown Swmp320191987
Pinetta320241987
Osceola320051992
Oak Grove220161967
Mossy Head220111966
Port St Joe220131969
Hilliard220241966
Mabel220061990
Scottsmoor220061992
Eglin A.F.B.220101997
Ft Lonesome219871987
Doctor Inlet219931967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.