BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Colorado has held roughly steady: down 4% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-4%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Colorado. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Colorado is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Colorado is projected to rise about 110% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.09–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.080.33
20270.210.080.34
20280.210.080.34
20290.210.090.34
20300.210.090.34

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Julesburg720211998
Cheyenne320251993
Fort Morgan320251997
Burlington320232003
Kirk320232003
Ninaview320242001
Boyero220171995
Two Buttes219851981
Doyle Bridge 2220231999
Nunn220192019
Neegrande220251992
Arsenal120121991
Briggsdale120232023
Pinneo120111973
Fleming120231988
Rockport120112011
Arsenal 2120252021
Kiowa120171997
Last Chance120141982
Abarr120241970
Rush120242024
Lamar120211977
Prospect Valley 2120222022
Hudson120251988
Wildhorse L120121989

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.