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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Kansas has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Kansas is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.96–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Kansas is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.96–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.71.06.3
20273.71.06.3
20283.70.996.3
20293.60.976.3
20303.60.966.3

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gove2020221970
Gray1820191967
Hays1720081967
Leoville1620181967
Solomon1620251982
Hopewell1520142000
Dover1220221967
Covert1120251967
Phillipsburg1120251967
Hollenberg1020251969
Plymell1020252000
Susank1020222000
Kanopolis920251967
Berwet920252000
Minneapolis820191967
Ashland720211969
Hanover720251969
Olathe620211967
Morehead620252001
Lakin520221967
Trading Post520252000
Leoti520222009
Olsburg520252001
Melrose420231967
St John420191967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.