BirdAnalyst
Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Kansas has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 0.89–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Kansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.6 (95% range 0.89–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.956.3
20263.60.936.3
20273.60.926.3
20283.60.906.3
20293.60.896.2

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert2220241967
Gove2020221970
Gray1820191967
Hays1720081967
Leoville1620181967
Hopewell1520142000
Dover1220221967
Jamestown1220242000
Susank1020222000
Hanover820231969
Minneapolis820191967
Plymell820242000
Ashland720211969
Olathe620211967
Hollenberg620231969
Reece620232003
Berwet620242000
Olsburg620242001
Rexford620242000
Solomon620191982
Lakin520221967
Albert520241967
Leoti520222009
Jewell 2520242006
Melrose420231967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.