BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Connecticut has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Connecticut is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Connecticut is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.030.32
20260.170.030.32
20270.170.030.32
20280.170.030.32
20290.170.030.32

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenwich219951995
Long Hill220191972
Mystic120221977
E Hartland119851967
Uncasville120241977
Westbrook119931978
Willimantic119961969
No Woodbury119941978
Sherman120081972
Danbury119891972
Warren119961976
Mid Haddam120242005
Woodstock 2120182017
New Hartford119811972
Granby120221990

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.