BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in South Dakota has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 0.61–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.5 (95% range 0.61–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.664.4
20272.50.654.4
20282.50.644.3
20292.50.634.3
20302.50.614.3

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chamberlain1920111967
Britton1520231972
Lane 21420142000
Raymond1320211967
Broadland1320141967
Conde1319841968
Maurine1320251970
Tripp1120251971
White Lake1120111967
Lacreek1120251991
Volunteer920251967
Gorman920101979
Volga720251967
Ft Thompson620111967
Owanka620221970
Howard520251970
Veblen520231968
Rosebud420111967
Forbes420251969
Gettysburg420231969
Winner320251969
Lane319991967
Eagle Butte320031990
Isabel320131990
Marcus320131999

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.