BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in South Dakota has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Dakota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.60–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in South Dakota is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.60–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.654.4
20262.50.644.4
20272.50.634.4
20282.50.624.4
20292.50.604.3

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chamberlain1920111967
Britton1520231972
Lane 21420142000
Howard1320241970
Raymond1320211967
Broadland1320141967
Conde1319841968
Harding1320101982
White Lake1120111967
Gorman920101979
Tripp820241971
Winner820231969
Lacreek820231991
Maurine720241970
Ft Thompson620111967
Owanka620221970
Veblen520231968
Rosebud420111967
Gettysburg420231969
Volga320241967
Lane319991967
Forbes320241969
Lodgepole320241996
Eagle Butte320031990
Isabel320131990

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.