BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Delaware has surged: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+224%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Delaware: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Delaware is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.7–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Delaware is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 1.7–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.51.57.4
20264.51.67.4
20274.61.67.5
20284.61.77.6
20294.71.77.6

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harrington720241966
Holleyville620041966
Milton 2620172017
Frankford520121966
Blackbird520241994
Pepperbox520161998
Pepperbox 2520242017
Frederica420101966
Dover219871967
Lowes Xrds219871967
Milton220151966
Holleyville 2220242006
Georgetown220211992
Mt Pleasant120151966
Wilmington120141968
Bethany Bch119871967
Millsboro120242017

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.