BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Arkansas has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Arkansas: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Arkansas is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Arkansas is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.004.0
20260.950.003.9
20270.820.003.8
20280.680.003.6
20290.540.003.5

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kelso2520162010
South Bend2320231967
Ravenden Springs1420152010
Ashdown920231967
Saffell920191967
Hughes820231967
Centerton820112010
Nance820231992
Lockesburg720192010
Princeton720141998
Augusta 2720162002
Stamps620191967
Gillett620242010
Eudora520161967
Blakely519991968
Augusta520011967
Stark520241967
Havana520212010
Locust Bayou420231967
Hope420241967
Coal Hill420231971
Maynard420241967
Compton420221967
Wilson420231993
Crows319911967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.