BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Louisiana has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Louisiana is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Louisiana is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 8.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 0.00–9.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.20.2410
20265.10.1710
20275.10.1110
20285.00.049.9
20294.90.009.9

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Carlisle10619881968
Ltl Chenier 27820112010
Junior6919911987
Forked Island6220242008
Ltl Chenier4820241986
Forked Island 24720112010
Sabine Nwr3020081989
Norwood2020242004
Ivan2020131998
Trout1920241988
Easton1719901967
Sabine Nwr 21720172009
Morgan City1619861967
Shaw1620241967
Clay1620241968
Ivan 21520162014
Goodwill1520242004
Mayflower1420241967
Longstreet1420241967
Chatham1319751967
Mount Union1320241998
Many1219921989
Slidell1219881984
Ramah1120241988
Lacombe1019831967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.