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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Alabama is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Alabama is projected to fall about 59% by 2030 — from 6.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.116.4
20273.10.016.3
20283.00.006.2
20292.90.006.1
20302.80.006.0

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warrior Std2320251966
Foley2319841966
Elamville2220251984
Billingsley2020251966
Epes2020241980
Liberty City1920111979
Seale1820171997
Harrell1720251968
Whitehall1720251983
Brundidge1620211967
Jena1620251981
Stevenson1620242006
Greensboro1420251966
Cottonton1420251966
Latham1320001966
Sprague1220251966
Wedgeworth1220251979
Autaugaville1220251996
Calebee1120251994
Riverside1120131999
Liberty City 21020252017
Valhermoso Spgs920101966
Millerville920251966
Wheeler Dam920251993
Eufaula920241996

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.