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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Alabama is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Alabama is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.10.076.1
20263.00.006.0
20272.90.005.9
20282.80.005.8
20292.70.005.7

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Foley2319841966
Epes2020241980
Liberty City1920111979
Seale1820171997
Whitehall1720241983
Brundidge1620211967
Elamville1620241984
Stevenson1620242006
Warrior Std1420241966
Billingsley1320221966
Latham1320001966
Calebee1320241994
Cottonton1220241966
Brantley1220241966
Wedgeworth1120241979
Riverside1120131999
Millerville1020241966
Greensboro1020241966
Valhermoso Spgs920101966
Greensport920241966
Sprague920241966
Eufaula920241996
St Florian820241967
Blocton820241969
Liberty City 2820242017

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.