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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Massachusetts has surged: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+93%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Massachusetts: up 93% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.02–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.02–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.010.43
20260.220.010.43
20270.220.010.43
20280.230.020.44
20290.230.020.44

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton220181980
N. Andover220172016
Sheffield219811981
E Dennis120211982
Marion120211989
Wellfleet120071977
Prattville120181998
Newburyport120211984
Maynard119881988
Littleton120021998
Gay Head120222004
Mansfield120161990
Wellfleet 2120242016
E Pepperell119691969
Belchertown120242005
Warren120081984
N Orange119951995
Warren 2120222022

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.