BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Michigan has surged: up 214% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+214%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Michigan: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Michigan is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Michigan is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.03–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.030.27
20260.150.030.27
20270.150.030.27
20280.150.030.27
20290.150.030.27

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Troy219951971
Bell Oak 2220232023
Nashville220211984
Galesburg220241977
Prattville220181973
S Lyons219901985
Hungerford120242022
Belding 2120142014
New Buffalo120141994
Hamburg 2120212006
Allegan Wma120131999
Almena119961996
Barry S.G.A.120032003
Bear Lake120182015
Lawrence120191970
Bravo120091981
Coopersville120231990
Howardsville120231973
Monterey120151981
Remus120241988
Mottville120241974
Hamburg119981986
Ola120212010
Maple Rapids119941994
Homer120211989

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.