BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Michigan has surged: up 324% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+324%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Michigan is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.04–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Michigan is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.04–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.040.28
20270.160.040.28
20280.160.040.28
20290.160.040.29
20300.160.040.29

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bell Oak 2320252023
New Troy219951971
Nashville220211984
Coopersville220251990
Prattville220181973
S Lyons219901985
Hungerford120252022
Belding 2120252014
New Buffalo120141994
Hamburg 2120212006
Allegan Wma120131999
Almena119961996
Barry S.G.A.120032003
Bear Lake120182015
Lawrence120251970
Bravo120091981
Galesburg120251977
Howardsville120251973
Monterey120151981
Remus120241988
Mottville120251974
Hamburg119981986
Ola120212010
Maple Rapids120251994
Homer120211989

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.