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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Missouri has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.84.2
20273.01.84.2
20283.01.84.2
20293.01.84.1
20303.01.84.1

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trenton1620251968
New Point1320251994
Frankford1120251985
Lucerne920252019
Eugene920252013
Lincoln820252013
Syracuse620241969
Crane620251994
Whitewater620251996
Osage Beach620251997
Mcfall620251994
Norborne620232006
New Hampton620252014
Pineville520221974
Madison520241971
Williamsvill520251994
Bennett520251994
Bland520251995
Deventer420251967
Cp Girardeau420251967
Centertown420251975
Ohio420241972
Warren419721967
Sticklervill420251976
Laclede420252001

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.