BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Missouri has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Missouri is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Missouri is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.8–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.84.2
20263.01.84.2
20273.01.84.2
20283.01.84.2
20293.01.84.2

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trenton2320241968
Gerald1020242014
New Point920241994
Deventer820231967
Huntsville820241968
Eugene820232013
Barks720241994
Osage Beach720241997
Laclede720242001
Mcfall720241994
Frankford720241985
Syracuse620241969
Crane620241994
Norborne620232006
Pineville520221974
Wesco520231974
Filley520241975
Madison520241971
Bennett520241994
Ohio420241972
Warren419721967
West Plains420232016
Peace Valley320241976
Cascade320241967
Clementine320021974

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.