BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Mississippi has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Mississippi is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Mississippi is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.40.348.4
20274.30.228.3
20284.10.108.2
20294.00.008.0
20303.90.007.9

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Carmel3220161974
Lake2520251966
Dundee2220221970
Forest2020251972
Cybur1720191966
Scooba1719821967
Trace Lorman1320192016
Olive Branch1120011966
Neely1120121974
Delta N.F.1120211995
Vicksburg Np1120212016
Embry1120251988
Macon1020251967
Amite River1020132008
Poplarville919781972
Moon920211996
Winterville820112009
Corinth720251972
Leaf River720132008
Eagle Lake720252012
Water Valley720182015
Fontainbleau619781968
Lake Como620101983
Star620252016
Scooba 2619871983

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.