BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Indiana has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has risen sharply in Indiana: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.85–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.0 (95% range 0.85–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.823.1
20272.00.833.1
20282.00.833.1
20292.00.843.1
20302.00.853.2

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian Spgs1320251982
Vevay1220251966
Georgia720251999
Newberry620251999
Knox520251984
Celestine520251979
Kewanna420211981
Middlebury420241991
Jamestown420251986
Spencer420241967
Washington420251987
New Phila420251982
Scottsburg420251982
Columbia Cty320041982
Monticello320251981
Galveston320211981
Tipton319911980
Brookville320251968
Cross Plains320251999
Packertown220041967
Thorntown220251982
Berne220231977
Pimento220251981
Cumback220251966
Millersburg220191981

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.