BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Indiana has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has risen sharply in Indiana: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Indiana is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.84–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Indiana is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.84–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.813.1
20262.00.823.1
20272.00.833.2
20282.00.833.2
20292.00.843.2

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian Spgs1520241982
Georgia1120241999
New Phila520241982
Kewanna420211981
Middlebury420241991
Spencer420241967
Washington420241987
Columbia Cty320041982
Galveston320211981
Tipton319911980
Jamestown320241986
Newberry320241999
Hebron220221967
Knox220241984
Packertown220041967
Thorntown220241982
Berne220231977
Brazil220241966
Millersburg220191981
Celestine220241979
Clear Spring220241981
Corydon220241966
Evansville220191966
Lagrange220242000
Cyprss220222001

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.