BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Montana has surged: up 727% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+727%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Montana: up 727% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Montana is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Montana is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.40
20260.200.000.41
20270.200.000.41
20280.210.000.42
20290.210.000.42

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brusett3820242011
Forsyth820232000
Jordan320242016
Webster320231990
Custer 2320242024
Miles City320242015
Oswego220232015
Laurel219891983
Powderville220241995
Ester Lake220242018
Saco220242019
Lindsay220232015
Custer220222022
Cleveland120102010
Malta120232012
Glasgow120242004
Redstone120162016
St Xavier 2120232022
Circle119931993
Savage119801980
Flatwillow119981998
Ingomar120082008
Locate120141983
Brandenberg120192008
Albion120231994

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.