BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in New York has surged: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+629%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in New York: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New York is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New York is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.030.17
20260.100.030.17
20270.100.030.17
20280.100.030.17
20290.100.030.17

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cicero Ctr819941976
Ghent420241991
Mt Hope319821972
Austerlitz320241969
Churchville320231994
Somers219731973
Meridale219711971
Cobleskill220232011
Hamburg219981998
Centerville220021995
Cherry Hill219931978
Nashville220182018
E Youngstown220211996
Westhampton119811981
Manorville119821972
Huntington120222014
Hauppauge120011998
Bedford119911982
Rhinebeck120242009
Highland119781978
Warwick119731973
Middletown120091971
Westbrookvle120182018
W Shokan120181990
Catskills120061987

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.