BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in New York has surged: up 642% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+642%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in New York. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New York is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New York is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.030.17
20270.100.030.17
20280.100.030.17
20290.100.030.17
20300.100.030.17

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cicero Ctr819941976
Mt Hope319821972
Austerlitz320241969
Churchville320231994
Somers219731973
Meridale219711971
Cobleskill220232011
Hamburg219981998
Centerville220021995
Cherry Hill219931978
Nashville220182018
E Youngstown220211996
North Easton220251991
Westhampton119811981
Manorville119821972
Huntington120222014
Hauppauge120011998
Bedford119911982
Rhinebeck120242009
Highland119781978
Warwick119731973
Middletown120091971
Westbrookvle120182018
W Shokan120181990
Catskills120061987

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.