BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Nebraska has surged: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+410%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Nebraska: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.1 (95% range 5.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Nebraska is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 8.1 (95% range 5.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.65.110
20277.75.310
20287.95.410
20298.05.510
20308.15.611

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brady3320251980
Paxton2420161968
Midway1920251967
Chambers1820252023
Hendley1820252018
Berwyn1820101993
Sumner1720251967
Stratton1620251975
Wheeler Co1620251978
Belvidere1520251969
Almeria1520211969
Nenzel1520252018
Surprise1420251968
Bartlett1319711968
Mullen1220231995
Kearney1120251968
Richland1120251968
Sparta1120251967
Benkelman1120251987
Arthur1120251985
Sargent1120252021
Liberty 31120252009
Winside 21120222005
Johnstown1020251969
Kennedy1020251980

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.