BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Nebraska has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+368%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Nebraska: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Nebraska is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Nebraska is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.0 (95% range 5.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.55.010.0
20267.65.110
20277.75.210
20287.95.410
20298.05.510

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sumner4320241967
Paxton2420161968
Brady2120241980
Chambers1920232023
Berwyn1820101993
Wheeler Co1720241978
Nenzel1620242018
Belvidere1520241969
Almeria1520211969
Midway1420231967
Bartlett1319711968
Benkelman1320221987
Sparta1220211967
Mullen1220231995
Ponca1220242018
Petersburg1120231969
Hendley1120242018
Winside 21120222005
Kenesaw1020241967
Stratton1020241975
Red Cloud1020242018
Richland920241968
Gordon920241975
Sargent920242021
Table820241973

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.