BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Texas has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
200Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Texas: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±119.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±119.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.001.6
20270.000.001.6
20280.000.001.6
20290.000.001.6
20300.000.001.6

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola2620231973
Eldorado1920231976
Smyrna 21520252011
Valley Spgs1220251967
Harper1120251969
San Saba1120251969
Diboll1120251968
Smyrna1120101995
Alexander St1020251995
Union Hill920241994
Catarina620071970
Town Bluff620251967
Massey Lake620251970
Mertzon620191967
Circle620241993
Ozona620221975
Dripping Spg620251985
Easton620131994
Mt. Selman620251998
Lydia520251967
Leakey520251996
Big Sandy Bith520242015
Zapata419701968
Muldoon420081997
Boerne420241967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.