BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Texas has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
197Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Texas: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Texas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.001.6
20260.000.001.6
20270.000.001.6
20280.000.001.6
20290.000.001.6

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indianola2620231973
Eldorado1920231976
San Saba1120241969
Smyrna1120101995
Harper1020241969
Smyrna 21020232011
Union Hill920241994
Massey Lake720241970
Longfellow720241968
Alexander St720241995
Catarina620071970
Diboll620241968
Mertzon620191967
Circle620241993
Ozona620221975
Easton620131994
Pumpville620242006
Prairie Mtn.520241994
Big Sandy Bith520242015
Easton 2520242014
Zapata419701968
Muldoon420081997
Boerne420241967
Morton420241970
Fannin420062002

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.