BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in New Jersey has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New Jersey is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.13–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+115%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.71Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±98.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in New Jersey is projected to rise about 115% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.71 (95% range 0.13–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±98.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.121.3
20260.710.121.3
20270.710.121.3
20280.710.131.3
20290.710.131.3

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown1120121991
Holmansville319961970
Hope319941972
Gillette320241988
Cape May Ch320131993
Sandbrook220231969
Croton220031970
Pedricktown 2220242013
Bennett Mill 2220232023
Woodbury Hgt120221967
Greenwich120151966
Six Points120191979
Toms River119961995
Albion119921967
Ancora119771967
Masonville119671967
Bennett Mill119991969
Clarksville119911969
New Bedford119981971
Robbinsville119781967
Midvale120211971
Kemah Lake120211984
Bloomsbury120221979
High Point120041992
Dover120051984

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.