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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in West Virginia has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Virginia is projected to rise about 69% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Virginia is projected to rise about 69% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.0–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.973.6
20272.30.993.6
20282.31.03.6
20292.31.03.7
20302.41.03.7

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smoot720251980
Moundsville720251972
Pt Pleasant620251974
Slate520251980
Yellow Spg520221973
Spencer420241986
Rockport420251966
Bebee420251972
Clear Creek320231988
Welch320181980
Arlee319781973
Olcott320211967
Lost River320251996
Mo Of Seneca320241971
Washburn320151974
Martinsburg320241967
Hix220251970
Stollings220211995
Hubbardstown220251976
Paradise220211966
Three Forks220251978
Cedarville220191982
Sugar Grove220251971
Monongah220191966
Smithfield220221993

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.