BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in West Virginia has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Virginia is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in West Virginia is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.1–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.03.6
20262.31.03.7
20272.41.13.7
20282.41.13.7
20292.41.13.7

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Moundsville620241972
Rockport520241966
Yellow Spg520221973
Clear Creek320231988
Welch320181980
Arlee319781973
Meadland320242003
Olcott320211967
Mo Of Seneca320241971
Slate320241980
Washburn320151974
Bebee320241972
Martinsburg320241967
Hix220231970
Stollings220211995
Spencer220231986
Paradise220211966
Valley Head220241971
Sutton220181976
Cedarville220191982
Denmar220241980
Lost River220211996
Sugar Grove220221971
Monongah220191966
Smithfield220221993

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.