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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Oklahoma has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Oklahoma: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±163.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±163.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.003.3
20260.000.003.3
20270.000.003.3
20280.000.003.3
20290.000.003.3

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha3920231994
Beaver520181979
Goodwater520211992
Big Cedar420241967
Randlett420051967
Bethel420231993
Wainwright420131992
Clear Lake420241996
Verden319781967
Barnsdall319771967
Skiatook320191988
Phillips220081968
Mill Creek220171967
Reed219911991
Baron220221967
Canadian220111967
Holdenville220241967
Eagle City219941967
Erick220161969
Peoria220151967
Felt220241975
Hollis220132013
Sickles220212001
Foraker220241993
Jet220211993

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.