BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Tennessee is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Tennessee is projected to fall about 58% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.283.9
20262.00.183.7
20271.90.073.6
20281.70.003.5
20291.60.003.4

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy2520241966
Collinwood1020241966
Campbellsville820171966
Silerton720241966
Humboldt720241966
Wrigley720221966
Whiteville620241966
Union Hill620241967
Silver Pt520241966
Indian Mound 2520232005
Brownsville420231966
Tibbs420241966
Bradyville420211966
Glen420241967
Jones Gap420191984
Moscow320241966
Mansfield320241966
Climer320011967
Allens Brdge320231966
Pawpaw220121966
Indian Mound219981966
White House220161966
Tullahoma220151967
Jasper220241967
Soddy219811967

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.