BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Tennessee has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Tennessee is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Tennessee is projected to fall about 66% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.244.1
20272.10.144.0
20282.00.043.9
20291.90.003.8
20301.80.003.7

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy3020251966
Mansfield1820251966
Humboldt1220251966
Collinwood820251966
Campbellsville820171966
Silerton720241966
Wrigley720221966
Signal Mtn620251979
Tibbs620251966
Union Hill620241967
Silver Pt520241966
Indian Mound 2520232005
Peytonsville420251966
Bradyville420211966
Glen420251967
Jasper420251967
Jones Gap420191984
Tiptonville320251966
Whiteville320251966
Climer320011967
Allens Brdge320231966
Pawpaw 2320252013
Pawpaw220121966
Moscow220251966
Indian Mound219981966

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.