BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Pennsylvania has surged: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+252%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Pennsylvania: up 252% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.63–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.63–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 47% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.63–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.581.0
20260.820.591.1
20270.830.601.1
20280.840.611.1
20290.860.631.1

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stoneybreak820241992
West Grove719961966
Harmonsburg620231980
Millville620241976
Margaret620241993
Shelocta420231987
Jefferson420241966
Mt Gretna 2420172014
Ferris Crnrs320241994
Waller320241984
Parkwood320241987
Rector319771970
Warrens Mill320221994
Labott319781967
Jeannette320221979
Schaefferstown 2320222012
Jacobus320231986
Leola320231998
Clover220182003
N Washington220231996
Arnot220122006
Rosecrans220231980
Rush220001982
Greentown219761969
Plesant Grov220241983

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.