BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

23×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Wisconsin: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.37–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–0.7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 0.43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.37–0.76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.330.71
20260.530.340.72
20270.540.350.73
20280.550.360.74
20290.560.370.76

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Briggsville620242001
N Freedom420241992
Fall River420241992
Annaton420242000
Weyerhauser220241987
Phillips219711971
Cadott220212008
Gresham220232023
Kendall220231972
Beaver Dam220091980
Wiota220241986
Grimms220212012
Hebron220241966
Beloit220242000
Prairie Du Chien220241998
Dresser120231968
Couderay120032003
Highland120172006
Omro 2120072005
River Falls120182005
Meridean120241998
Esdaile120122012
Cochrane120161967
Gilmanton119751975
Trempealeau120231973

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.