BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

23×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Orchard Oriole Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.40–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–0.7995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.72 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.40–0.79). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.550.350.74
20270.560.360.75
20280.570.370.76
20290.580.380.77
20300.590.400.79

Orchard Oriole Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prairie Du Chien920251998
Briggsville620252001
Paris520251978
Eden420252018
Weyerhauser320251987
Raymond320251987
Phillips219711971
Buena Vista220252011
Kendall220231972
N Freedom220251992
Pardeeville220252009
Beaver Dam220091980
Wiota220251986
Grimms220212012
Hebron220251966
Annaton220252000
Beloit220252000
Dresser120231968
Couderay120032003
Highland120172006
Omro 2120072005
River Falls120182005
Meridean120241998
Colby120252025
Esdaile120122012

Orchard Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.