BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±296.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±296.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.002.0
20260.000.002.0
20270.000.002.0
20280.000.002.0
20290.000.002.0

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Massey LakeTEXAS72024
MuldoonTEXAS42008
FanninTEXAS42006
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA31977
SkiatookOKLAHOMA32019
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22017
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22024
Oak GroveTEXAS21986
OlaTEXAS22011
AlbanyTEXAS22023
Wolfe CityTEXAS21986
OlneyTEXAS22024
HenriettaTEXAS22018
CayugaTEXAS22010
CarlosTEXAS22019
CreedmoreTEXAS22011
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22012
ComancheTEXAS22024
LocoOKLAHOMA11974
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11979
BeggsOKLAHOMA12007
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12006
NobleOKLAHOMA12021
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.