BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.48–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.97 (95% range 0.48–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.940.451.4
20260.940.461.4
20270.950.471.4
20280.960.471.4
20290.970.481.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA242016
LingleWYOMING142024
BenkelmanNEBRASKA132022
PlymellKANSAS82024
JulesburgCOLORADO72021
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA72024
Agate 2NEBRASKA62024
CircleTEXAS62024
Fort MorganCOLORADO52024
LakinKANSAS52022
LeotiKANSAS52022
DaltonNEBRASKA52024
RuletonKANSAS42022
MarslandNEBRASKA42018
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA42024
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA42024
YoderWYOMING42024
KirkCOLORADO32023
NinaviewCOLORADO32024
BurlingtonCOLORADO32023
WallaceKANSAS32022
BoyeroCOLORADO22017
Two ButtesCOLORADO21985
NunnCOLORADO22019
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.