BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.49–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.49–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.451.4
20270.950.461.4
20280.950.471.4
20290.960.481.4
20300.970.491.5

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA242016
LingleWYOMING142024
BenkelmanNEBRASKA112025
PlymellKANSAS102025
JulesburgCOLORADO72021
DaltonNEBRASKA72025
Agate 2NEBRASKA62025
CircleTEXAS62024
LakinKANSAS52022
LeotiKANSAS52022
RuletonKANSAS42022
MarslandNEBRASKA42018
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA42025
CheyenneCOLORADO32025
KirkCOLORADO32023
NinaviewCOLORADO32024
Fort MorganCOLORADO32025
BurlingtonCOLORADO32023
WallaceKANSAS32022
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32025
BoyeroCOLORADO22017
Two ButtesCOLORADO21985
NeegrandeCOLORADO22025
NunnCOLORADO22019
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.