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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±211.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.007.9
20270.000.007.9
20280.000.007.9
20290.000.007.9
20300.000.007.9

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley SpgsTEXAS122025
HarperTEXAS112025
San SabaTEXAS112025
Dripping SpgTEXAS62025
LeakeyTEXAS52025
BoerneTEXAS42024
AdamsvilleTEXAS32025
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS32025
Allen CreekTEXAS32025
UtopiaTEXAS22024
GeorgetownTEXAS11982
FitzhughTEXAS11983
PidcokeTEXAS12010
KempnerTEXAS12025
Indian MtnTEXAS12024
ManorTEXAS12018
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12025
LeanderTEXAS11995
MontellTEXAS12025
RockspringTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.