BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has collapsed in Edwards Plateau: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±219.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.007.8
20260.000.007.8
20270.000.007.8
20280.000.007.8
20290.000.007.8

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San SabaTEXAS112024
HarperTEXAS102024
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS52024
BoerneTEXAS42024
Valley SpgsTEXAS32024
Dripping SpgTEXAS32024
MontellTEXAS32024
UtopiaTEXAS22024
LeakeyTEXAS22023
GeorgetownTEXAS11982
FitzhughTEXAS11983
PidcokeTEXAS12010
KempnerTEXAS12017
AdamsvilleTEXAS12024
Indian MtnTEXAS12024
ManorTEXAS12018
Pidcoke 2TEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS11995
Allen CreekTEXAS12024
RockspringTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.