BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Orchard Oriole In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.25–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.85Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.85 (95% range 0.25–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.241.4
20260.840.241.4
20270.840.241.4
20280.850.251.4
20290.850.251.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrusettMONTANA382024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA192011
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA132010
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA92024
ForsythMONTANA82023
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA82023
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA82023
CrookstonNEBRASKA72024
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA62022
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA62011
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA62022
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA52024
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42024
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA42001
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA42011
JordanMONTANA32024
WebsterMONTANA32023
Miles CityMONTANA32024
Custer 2MONTANA32024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA32024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA32003
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA32013
MarcusSOUTH-DAKOTA32013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.