BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 837% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+837%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 837% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Orchard Oriole In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.37 (95% range 0.21–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.37 (95% range 0.21–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.180.51
20260.350.190.52
20270.360.200.53
20280.370.200.53
20290.370.210.54

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK81994
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA62023
GhentNEW-YORK42024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK32024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK32023
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA32024
HamburgNEW-YORK21998
Cherry HillNEW-YORK21993
NashvilleNEW-YORK22018
E YoungstownNEW-YORK22021
LattasburgOHIO22024
CloverPENNSYLVANIA22018
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12024
HighlandNEW-YORK11978
W ShokanNEW-YORK12018
CatskillsNEW-YORK12006
DuanesburgNEW-YORK11996
CayugaNEW-YORK11995
MacdougallNEW-YORK12023
OrleansNEW-YORK12024
RushvilleNEW-YORK12024
BranchportNEW-YORK12014
CastileNEW-YORK12017
RandolphNEW-YORK12008
ByronNEW-YORK12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.