BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
322Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Orchard Oriole in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.65–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.65–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.671.6
20261.10.671.6
20271.10.661.6
20281.10.661.6
20291.10.651.6

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY311997
StevensonALABAMA162024
RiversideALABAMA112013
OmegaOHIO112024
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY101995
GreensportALABAMA92024
CamptonKENTUCKY82021
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY82024
DresdenOHIO82024
StonecreekOHIO82024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA82024
LakeviewALABAMA72024
KymulgaALABAMA72024
TalladegaALABAMA72024
ClinchportVIRGINIA71978
MarionVIRGINIA71977
SaltvilleVIRGINIA72024
BlacksburgVIRGINIA72024
DearmanvilleALABAMA61983
SmithsburgMARYLAND62014
KeeneOHIO62023
MillvillePENNSYLVANIA62024
MargaretPENNSYLVANIA62024
MoundsvilleWEST-VIRGINIA62024
BrooksvilleALABAMA52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.