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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Orchard Oriole In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.005.8
20272.70.005.7
20282.60.005.6
20292.50.005.5
20302.40.005.4

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA1061988
KelsoARKANSAS252016
DundeeMISSISSIPPI222022
Morgan CityLOUISIANA161986
ShawLOUISIANA162024
RamahLOUISIANA162025
South BendARKANSAS142025
BardwellKENTUCKY132003
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA112025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI112021
SaffellARKANSAS92019
RoselandLOUISIANA92025
MayflowerLOUISIANA92025
MoonMISSISSIPPI92021
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI82011
Augusta 2ARKANSAS72016
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI72025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62025
EudoraARKANSAS52016
AugustaARKANSAS52001
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY52025
LaroseLOUISIANA51988
ConcordLOUISIANA52016
HughesARKANSAS42025
EnglandARKANSAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.