BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.005.9
20262.80.005.8
20272.70.005.7
20282.60.005.6
20292.50.005.5

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA1061988
KelsoARKANSAS252016
South BendARKANSAS232023
DundeeMISSISSIPPI222022
Morgan CityLOUISIANA161986
ShawLOUISIANA162024
MayflowerLOUISIANA142024
BardwellKENTUCKY132003
RamahLOUISIANA112024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI112021
SaffellARKANSAS92019
MoonMISSISSIPPI92021
HughesARKANSAS82023
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI82011
DeventerMISSOURI82023
Augusta 2ARKANSAS72016
FrogmoreLOUISIANA72024
GillettARKANSAS62024
EudoraARKANSAS52016
AugustaARKANSAS52001
LaroseLOUISIANA51988
ConcordLOUISIANA52016
MaynardARKANSAS42024
WilsonARKANSAS42023
FloydLOUISIANA42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.