BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Orchard Oriole In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.37–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.37–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.803.8
20262.20.693.7
20272.10.583.6
20282.00.483.5
20291.90.373.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CantonKENTUCKY162018
Indian SpgsINDIANA152024
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS142015
MerrimacKENTUCKY142024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY132019
GeorgiaINDIANA112024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY111998
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY112021
MillionKENTUCKY101986
DixieKENTUCKY102018
PorterKENTUCKY102024
Million 2KENTUCKY102024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE102024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA92010
BoxvilleKENTUCKY91983
JoyKENTUCKY92023
CentertonARKANSAS82011
EugeneMISSOURI82023
RomeOHIO82024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE82017
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY71988
Buena VistaKENTUCKY72017
PlumKENTUCKY72024
BarksMISSOURI72024
Osage BeachMISSOURI72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.