BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968
163Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.37–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029
1.9Projected 2029 index
0.37–3.495% range
±12.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.30.803.8
20262.20.693.7
20272.10.583.6
20282.00.483.5
20291.90.373.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Central Hardwoods.
CantonKENTUCKY162018
Indian SpgsINDIANA152024
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS142015
MerrimacKENTUCKY142024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY132019
GeorgiaINDIANA112024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY111998
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY112021
MillionKENTUCKY101986
DixieKENTUCKY102018
PorterKENTUCKY102024
Million 2KENTUCKY102024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE102024
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA92010
BoxvilleKENTUCKY91983
JoyKENTUCKY92023
CentertonARKANSAS82011
EugeneMISSOURI82023
RomeOHIO82024
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE82017
Daniel BooneKENTUCKY71988
Buena VistaKENTUCKY72017
PlumKENTUCKY72024
BarksMISSOURI72024
Osage BeachMISSOURI72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.