BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Orchard Oriole In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Orchard Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Orchard Oriole has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Orchard Oriole In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Orchard Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.001.1
20260.180.001.1
20270.170.001.1
20280.150.001.1
20290.140.001.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Orchard Oriole in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatarinaTEXAS62007
ZapataTEXAS41970
MillettTEXAS42006
RandadoTEXAS32009
EncinalTEXAS31984
El IndioTEXAS32001
Millett 2TEXAS32022
San YgnacioTEXAS21972
HondoTEXAS22024
El SauzTEXAS22013
Encinal 2TEXAS22024
LaredoTEXAS22021
RachalTEXAS11992
Agua NuevaTEXAS12005
Mirando CityTEXAS11973
George WestTEXAS12023
La PryorTEXAS12017
RaymondvilleTEXAS12003
Catarina 2TEXAS12013
DilleyTEXAS12024
Catarina 3TEXAS12024
SejitaTEXAS12012
Pedro CreekTEXAS12010
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.